religion

A Bayesian Analysis of Biblical Prophesies

Nathan Broadbent

16 Nov 2025 — 10 min read

I grew up in a Christian family, so I would often think about the end times and the book of Revelation while I was trying to fall asleep (it didn't help.)

Every generation seems to find a way to predict that the end of the world is near. From Hitler to the Cold War, and barcodes to the internet, there's always something that lines up with prophesies in the book of Revelation.

However, some of these prophesies do seem to line up particularly well with current events:

I was curious to see how well Donald Trump actually matched these prophesies compared to other public figures, so I did what any normal person would do: I built a Bayesian reasoning framework and I calculated the answer.

The answer: Donald Trump matches these prophesies eerily well. In fact, slightly more than Nero himself (depending on how you score it.)

Subject                   | Posterior Probability  | Log Likelihood Ratio
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donald Trump              | 100%                   | 12.5
Nero                      | 100%                   | 12.4
Mao Zedong                | 0.29%                  | 6.5
Adolf Hitler              | 0.01%                  | 4.7
Xi Jinping                | 0.00%                  | 3.8
Pol Pot                   | 0.00%                  | 0.9
Joseph Stalin             | 0.00%                  | 0.2
George W. Bush            | 0.00%                  | -0.2
Napoleon Bonaparte        | 0.00%                  | -0.4
Emmanuel Macron           | 0.00%                  | -1.5
Vladimir Putin            | 0.00%                  | -2.8
Bill Clinton              | 0.00%                  | -5.1
Barack Obama              | 0.00%                  | -5.3
Che Guevara               | 0.00%                  | -7.3
Winston Churchill         | 0.00%                  | -36.7
Abraham Lincoln           | 0.00%                  | -52.7
Mahatma Gandhi            | 0.00%                  | -58.4
Mother Teresa             | 0.00%                  | -61.3

Here's the code if you want to take a look at the data and script:

git clone https://github.com/ndbroadbent/bayesian_inference.git
cd bayesian_inference
python antichrist_analysis.py

To add your own subjects, drop a YAML file into data/subjects/ following the existing examples. Then run the script again and see where your candidate lands on the Great Antichrist Leaderboard.

How antichrist_analysis.py works

Loads all the prophecies
From Daniel, Revelation, Thessalonians, the Johannine letters and a couple of OT bonus passages. In my current setup that’s 54 distinct prophecies.
Loads all the subjects
YAML files in data/subjects/ describe each candidate:
- Basic bio (name, era, role)
- A 0.0-1.0 rating for how well they match each prophecy
- Short evidence notes explaining the rating
Assigns a very skeptical prior
By default, the prior is one in a billion that any given person is the Antichrist.
Apply Bayes' theorem
For each prophecy, we define:
- How likely it would be if someone was the Antichrist
- How likely it would be if they weren’t

Then we scale that by the subject’s rating for that prophecy and get a likelihood ratio:

LR = P(evidence | Antichrist) / P(evidence | Not Antichrist)

Multiply all those LRs together (in log space), apply Bayes’ theorem, and you get a posterior probability and a log likelihood ratio for each subject.

Generates tables, summaries, and plots
The script prints a ranking table and, if you pass --plot, generates bar charts and a prophecy heatmap.

Nero

The single strongest prophecy match in the entire dataset is this one:

Revelation 13:18 – The Antichrist’s number will be 666, which requires wisdom to interpret.

In the model, that prophecy has a log10 likelihood ratio of 156.88 for Nero, because:

Hebrew gematria for “Nero Caesar” famously adds up to 666.
This is not a conspiracy theory; it’s been the default reading for a long time by Biblical scholars.

On top of that, Nero:

Ruled Rome, the city on seven hills, right in the period Revelation is usually dated.
Demanded worship, built colossal statues, and loved blasphemous titles.
Killed Christians in extremely creative and horrifying ways (human torches, arena games).
Oversaw the Jewish War that ended with the destruction of the Temple.

So when you feed all the prophecies through Bayes, Nero comes out with:

Prophecy coverage: 100%
Log10 likelihood ratio: 12.4
Posterior probability: effectively 100%

Donald Trump

The biggest LR boost for Trump is Revelation 13:3-5 (LR: 94.29)

³And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
⁴And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
⁵And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.

"And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death"
- A bullet literally tore through Trump’s ear, but the intended wound was fatal in the ordinary meaning. It simply missed by centimeters.
“The whole world was amazed”
- The clip went instantly global and dominated social media worldwide.
“And they followed the Beast”
- His approval shot up afterward and fundraising spiked.
"And power was given unto him to continue forty and two months"
- 42 months is 3.5 years. Eerily close to a 4 year presidential term.
- Trump was sworn in again on January 20, 2025.
- 42 months after that is Thursday, July 20, 2028.
- If something happens to Trump around July 2028 then I might have to start going to church again.

Here are the full results of the analysis for Donald Trump:

Prior Probability: 0.0000001% (1 in a billion)
Log10 Likelihood Ratio: 12.5
- An LR of 12.5 means the evidence is 3 trillion times more likely if Donald Trump matches the prophetic-hypothesis profile than if it does not
Posterior Probability: effectively 100%

Prophesies Sorted by Likelihood Ratio

Revelation 13:3 (LR: 94.29): The Antichrist will appear to receive a fatal wound to the head but will survive, amazing the world
Evidence: July 2024 assassination attempt where a bullet ripped through Trump’s ear became an instant 'fatal wound healed' meme.
Daniel 7:20 (LR: 5.90): The Antichrist will speak of 'great things' and things that seem 'greater'
Daniel 11:14 (LR: 5.59): Supporters of the Antichrist will become violent and stage a rebellion, but will fail
Evidence: Fallout from the 6 January 2021 attack plus state-level plots shows violent factions trying to secure rule through intrigue.
Revelation 17:3 (LR: 4.97): The Antichrist will be full of blasphemous names with seven heads (possibly locations) and ten horns (possibly allies)
Evidence: Trump-branded towers plus Saudi’s Beast Land, NEOM’s Line/Oxagon/Trojena mega-zones, and LIV-backed skyline statues extend the 'beast' name across seven desert heads.
Daniel 11:29-33 (LR: 4.41): The Antichrist will use armed forces to clear an area near a holy place and set up something detestable
Revelation 17:9-11 (LR: 2.91): The Antichrist will be associated with seven mountains or hills and will be the eighth in a succession of rulers
Evidence: Allied capitals (Rome, DC, Jerusalem) and Saudi’s seven-zone NEOM/Diriyah giga-projects give literal seven-hill/zone imagery to the movement’s headquarters.
2 Thessalonians 2:9-10 (LR: 2.78): The Antichrist will use counterfeit miracles, signs, and wonders to deceive people who reject truth
Evidence: AI-generated pastors, deepfake Biden robocalls, synthetic healing videos, and bot-driven prophecy accounts pump lying wonders to audiences that rejected mainstream truth.
Daniel 11:36 (LR: 2.68): The Antichrist will exalt himself above every god and say outlandish things
Revelation 13:5-6 (LR: 2.57): The Antichrist will speak arrogantly and blaspheme against God
Daniel 11:44 (LR: 2.43): The Antichrist will rage at troubling reports from the east and north
Daniel 11:40 (LR: 2.42): The Antichrist will have a feud with leaders from the south
Evidence: Simultaneous pushes for Mexico mass deportations, Red Sea naval strikes, Taiwan Strait brinkmanship, and Persian Gulf escort missions show north/south clashes driven by the same leader.
Revelation 17:8 (LR: 2.28): The Antichrist will fascinate the world with his appearance
Evidence: Campaigning on 'they tried to stop me but I returned' and 'you can’t kill him' memes after impeachment, 91 indictments, and an assassination attempt mirrors the beast who 'was, is not, yet is.'
Revelation 17:12-13 (LR: 2.12): Ten powerful figures will support the Antichrist and give him their authority
Evidence: Trump, Musk, Modi, Netanyahu, Milei, Orbán, Meloni, Erdoğan, Putin proxies, and MBS publicly coordinate policy, media, and finance, effectively handing authority to the same agenda.
Revelation 13:4 (LR: 1.97): People will worship the Antichrist, asking 'Who is like the beast?'
Revelation 13:16-17 (LR: 1.97): The Antichrist's followers will wear a mark on their foreheads or hands required for commerce
Evidence: MAGA hats/flags act as voluntary marks while X payments, CBID, Worldcoin orb enrollments, FedNow/CBDC pilots, and Gulf biometric payment programs test commerce control layers.
Revelation 13:1-2 (LR: 1.95): The Antichrist will be a political leader who receives power from Satan; will have a lion-like mouth making threats
Revelation 13:11-12 (LR: 1.95): A religious leader will support the Antichrist and cause people to worship him
Daniel 11:21 (LR: 1.95): The Antichrist will be a political outsider with contemptible character who wins unexpectedly
Daniel 9:26-27 (LR: 1.93): The Antichrist will make and break a covenant with many; a ruler in Israel will cause desolation
Evidence: Brokered multiple Abraham Accord and Gaza ceasefire arrangements, threatened tariffs/sanctions to force compliance, then reversed or let them collapse, mirroring a ruler who makes and breaks covenants in Israel while courting Third Temple activists.
2 Thessalonians 2:3-4 (LR: 1.93): The Antichrist will exalt himself above all gods and religious worship, proclaiming himself to be God
Daniel 11:28 (LR: 1.86): The Antichrist will intentionally inflict harm on certain groups before returning to his land
Evidence: Hardline immigration raids and Gaza depopulation plans mirror the shepherd who devours the flock.
Daniel 12:7 (LR: 1.86): Christians will hold power during the Antichrist's reign but God will break their power
Daniel 11:33 (LR: 1.84): During the Antichrist's reign, those who resist will face violence but will instruct many
Revelation 13:13-15 (LR: 1.71): The Antichrist will use counterfeit miracles, signs and wonders to deceive people
Evidence: Elon Musk’s Falcon boosters, viral AI 'Jesus/angel' livestreams, deepfake prophecies, and Optimus demos give the image breath and call 'fire' from heaven for millions online.
Acts 2:17 (LR: 1.69): During the rule of the Antichrist, people will begin having strange and vivid dreams
Evidence: TikTok/YouTube overflow with rapture dreams, Trump-destiny visions, AI angel warnings, and revival prophecies algorithmically shared by millions every week.
Daniel 8:25 (LR: 1.65): The Antichrist will cause deceit to prosper and consider himself superior
Revelation 6:2 (LR: 1.57): The Antichrist will be obsessed with conquering and winning
Daniel 7:8 (LR: 1.57): The Antichrist will speak boastfully
Daniel 11:24 (LR: 1.56): The Antichrist will distribute plunder and wealth to his followers in unprecedented ways
Matthew 24:24 (LR: 1.56): The Antichrist will perform signs and wonders that could deceive even Christians
Evidence: Influencers mixing prophecy, AI doom, and political endorsements sell themselves as truth tellers while gaming engagement algorithms.
Matthew 24:40-41 (LR: 1.51): During the Antichrist's rule, there will be a mass disappearance of workers
Evidence: 2025 deportation orders, giant detention camp planning, and AI-driven workplace E-Verify sweeps literally separate families so one is taken and the other left.
Revelation 17:15 (LR: 1.47): The Antichrist comes from a place with many peoples, nations, and languages
Daniel 11:39 (LR: 1.47): The Antichrist will reward loyalists with powerful positions and lucrative land deals
Zechariah 11:16-17 (LR: 1.47): The Antichrist will not help the vulnerable or care for those in need
Daniel 11:23 (LR: 1.42): The Antichrist will come to power through collusion with a secret alliance despite having few supporters
Daniel 7:25 (LR: 1.39): The Antichrist will try to change times and laws
Daniel 11:32 (LR: 1.39): True believers will resist the Antichrist
Revelation 6:6 (LR: 1.38): During the Antichrist's rule, there will be food shortages and price increases while some commodities remain unaffected
Daniel 7:23 (LR: 1.31): The Antichrist will come from a nation that is a military superpower able to crush the earth
Revelation 13:8 (LR: 1.27): The Antichrist will be worshipped by many people around the world
Revelation 13:18 (LR: 1.26): The Antichrist's number will be 666, which requires wisdom to interpret
Daniel 11:16-18 (LR: 1.25): The Antichrist will form an alliance with Israel and will focus on coastal areas
Revelation 13:7 (LR: 1.23): The Antichrist will have authority over every tribe, people, language and nation
Revelation 8:10 (LR: 1.21): A global pandemic will occur during the Antichrist's rule, killing many people
Daniel 8:23 (LR: 1.16): The Antichrist will be a master of intrigue
2 John 1:7 (LR: 1.12): The Antichrist will be a deceiver who denies Jesus came in the flesh
Revelation 17:16-17 (LR: 1.06): The Antichrist will eventually turn against religious institutions
Revelation 16:13-14 (LR: 0.84): The Antichrist will use demonic powers to influence world leaders
1 John 2:22 (LR: 0.82): The Antichrist will deny the Father and the Son
1 John 4:3 (LR: 0.82): The Antichrist will not acknowledge Jesus as coming in the flesh
Daniel 7:24 (LR: 0.73): The Antichrist will rise to power from among ten kings
Daniel 11:37 (LR: 0.73): The Antichrist will show no regard for the god of his fathers or desire of women
1 John 2:18 (LR: 0.73): There will be many antichrists, with one final Antichrist coming at the end
Revelation 19:19-20 (LR: 0.07): The Antichrist will eventually be defeated and thrown into the lake of fire